As negotiators come together in Durban, South Africa, to discuss the fate of international climate policy, the balance between poverty reduction and emissions reduction is sure to be one of the most contentious issues. Economic growth in developing countries is likely to mean growing per capita emissions, though the increase can be limited by investment in low-carbon technologies. Climate policies will require diverting some spending away from other priorities, though policy can be designed so this burden does not fall on low-income countries. The twin goals of preventing dangerous climate change and fostering development don’t have to be incompatible. If economic development is swept under the table, however, they surely will be.
Proposed climate policies are usually described in terms of reductions from the “business-as-usual” emissions that would be expected in the absence of any new policy. The size of projected business-as-usual emissions depends first and foremost on how fast each national economy will grow – the faster the expected growth, the higher the “no-policy” emissions. If we are optimistic about future growth, then business-as-usual emissions are high, and very steep emission reductions will be necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. If, on the other hand, we are pessimistic and expect widespread poverty to persist into the 22nd century, then business-as-usual emissions are lower, and required emissions reductions are far more moderate. (more…)
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