Another in the series, The Costs of Inaction – What We Will Pay if Climate Change Continues.
Perhaps nowhere is the contrast between the science and economics of climate change as great as in the dueling metaphors governing the impact of high end warming: “Collapse” (following Jared Diamond) versus “Reductions in the Rate of Growth” (following all standard integrated assessment models in economics, including those of Nicholas Stern and the IPCC).
By way of reference, mid-range estimates of business-as-usual warming are currently around 4 degrees C. During the last Ice Age, global temperatures were only 4.5 degree C colder then they are today. Many climate scientists, I would argue, believe that high end warming (> 4 degrees C) will likely impoverish much of humanity.
By contrast, economic models calmly integrate this warming of greater than Ice Age magnitude, only in the opposite direction, into scenarios assuming continued growth, albeit at reduced levels. Stern, for example, provided an integrated estimate of the costs of climate change, forecasting likely reductions in global output as high as 20% below the baseline. This is a big number, justifying immediate and large cuts in emissions on a benefit-cost basis. (more…)
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